End Of An Era For The Greens

Eamon Ryan's boots are probably too big to fill for now.

In the often chaotic arena of Irish politics, where power struggles and controversies constantly brew, there comes a time when even the most steadfast leaders decide they've had enough. Such is the case with the announcement that Eamon Ryan is stepping back from the spotlight, setting the stage for a new chapter for the Greens.

Eamon Ryan leaves behind a legacy that will be celebrated, debated, and outright hated. Throughout his career, he has navigated turbulent waters and faced criticism from all sides. But in the end, the relentless grind of politics will have taken its toll. The Green Party will probably lose all their seats at the next general election, a likely factor in Eamon Ryan’s decision to step back and make room for a fresh face and new voice as party leader.

Say what you want about Eamon Ryan, social media, print media, broadcast media, Ryanair and even his party members do all the time. This criticism is often unfair, considering he is viewed as one of the most principled politicians of his generation. Even if one may disagree with his principles, he has consistently upheld them, making his party a focal point for a lot of criticism directed at the government. Whether it's a scandal, a policy failure, or a public relations nightmare, the Greens are getting all the blame, even if it’s TD from another party caught in bed a dead girl or a live boy. The Greens are still getting the blame.

Eamon Ryan has served as a minister under five different Taoisigh. Bertie Ahern, Brian Cowen, Leo Varadkar, Micheál Martin and Simon Harris. No other Irish politician has served as a minister under so many Taoisigh. Expertise in politics is not merely about knowing how to win votes or navigate bureaucracy; it's about understanding the nuances of coalition politics, economic trends, foreign relations, and the art of balancing internal and external competing interests. A well-seasoned politician brings to the table years of accumulated knowledge, wisdom, and insight that are irreplaceable. Eamon Ryan is to the Green Party what De Valera was to Fianna Fáil. Eamon Ryan can credibly claim to be a big beast in Irish politics in recent decades.

Former Green Party leader John Gormley, once recounted how, when the former Fianna Fáil TD Seamus Brennan opened coalition talks with the Green party on forming a government, he said: “You're playing senior hurling now lads.” Eamon Ryan has been playing senior hurling since 2007. In 2020 Ryan negotiated tough green deals and made sure that environmentally friendly policies were crucial components of the Programme for Government.

The Green Party's relationship with the electorate is like an on-off boyfriend-girlfriend relationship without the wild sex. The electorate was turned on by the Greens in the 2019 local election and the 2020 general election. But as we saw in the recent local elections the electorate is turned off again. Despite Eamon Ryan looking younger than all of his ministerial colleagues he’s sixty years of age and the task of rebuilding after the next General election will be herculean.

Where does this leave the Green Party?

Stable leadership is the bedrock on which a political party stands. Without it, a party will be cast adrift, lost in a sea of uncertainty and division. To navigate the turbulent waters of Dáil politics successfully, a party must have strong, stable leadership to guide it toward its goals and ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness in achieving those goals and the only goals that matter in Irish politics are bums on seats in the Houses of the Oireachtas.

The Greens are in a tough spot as they are predicted to lose all their current TDs in the upcoming General election and won't have any Senators left. This means it doesn't matter who their next leader is, as party rules mandate a leadership contest within six months of a general election. Therefore, whoever becomes their leader for the upcoming election will face a tough battle for political survival just a few months after being elected leader.

There’s a massive problem with the two front runners for the leadership of the Green Party, Roderic O’Gorman and Pippa Hackett.

Let’s have a look.

Roderic O’Gorman has faced daunting challenges in his demanding role as the Minister for Integration/Immigration in the Government. He is navigating through numerous crises while being targeted by misinformation and personal attacks. Despite narrowly winning in the previous General election, it is highly improbable that he will keep his seat in the next General Election. Although respected in political circles for his hard work in a significant area of crisis, his leadership of the Green Party would spell disaster. O’Gorman is presently too contentious for the electorate to support right now on a constituency or national level.

The truth regarding Senator Pippa Hackett is that she is virtually unknown beyond County Offaly or the Green Party circles. Despite my appreciation for the Seanad, unless a Senator spontaneously combusts or someone delivers a speech while naked in the hallowed chamber, the general public is unlikely to raise so much as an eyebrow. The only time Senators get taken notice of by the media is when they’re mad, bad or controversial. Sadly Senator Hackett has never been mad bad or controversial and her political career is likely over in the short to medium term.

There’s one final scenario that might play out.

Given Eamon Ryan's forthcoming departure, his successor must be chosen in the Dublin Bay South constituency. This constituency could potentially be the sole Dáil seat retained by the Greens post-general election. Moreover, a leadership election is mandated within six months. Is it possible that the individual succeeding Eamon Ryan in Dublin Bay South could be the one to guide the party out of perdition, rather than Roderic O'Gorman or Pippa Hackett?

Either way, the road from electoral perdition is going to be a long one for the Greens.