EU's Best Trade Weapon? Playing U.S. Politics Against the GOP
How the EU Can Exploit GOP Divisions to Win a Trade War
First of all, tariffs are a terrible idea. I’ve written about it in the past, which you can read here. They are the economic equivalent of punching yourself in the face to teach your enemy a lesson.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to impose sweeping tariffs—up to 25% —on some imports from the EU. April 2nd is the ground zero when the Trump administration announces the plans for wide-scale tariffs against the E.U.
In response, the European Union must prepare a strategic retaliation plan to protect its economic interests and, if nothing else, to stand up to Trump’s economic policy of trying to bully allies into submission. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminium, leading to a tit-for-tat response from the EU, which targeted American exports to Europe. If Trump follows through on his plan to escalate trade hostilities again, the EU must carefully select U.S. exports that maximise political and economic pressure while minimising harm to European consumers and industries.
The last time Trump went tariff-crazy, Europe responded by whacking tariffs on Kentucky bourbon, Wisconsin motorcycles, and Pennsylvania peanut butter—because nothing says “screw you” like making American political donors squirm when their bottom line is hit. This time, Europe needs a smarter hit list—one that makes Iowa farmers and Silicon Valley tech bros howl while minimising the damage to French winemakers, German carmakers and, of course, the Irish pharma and farmer sectors.
What’s On Europe’s Hit List?
Agriculture – Nothing terrifies a politician more than angry farmers in Iowa waving pitchforks (or voting Democrat).
Bourbon – Mitch McConnell’s beloved Kentucky whiskey got hit last time. Let’s do it again, just for nostalgia’s sake.
Harley-Davidson Motorcycles – Nothing says “trade war” like making middle-aged men in leather vests pay extra for their midlife crises.
Boeing Jets – Airbus already hates Boeing. If Europe reciprocates with 25% tariffs, the price of a Boeing 787 goes up by $40m. No one trusts Boeing’s safety record anymore, and no airline carrier outside the U.S.A. will buy from them again at those prices.
iPhones & MacBooks – Sure, we love our iPhones in Europe, but nothing would make Tim Cook call Trump faster than a 25% tariff on Apple’s overpriced tech hardware.
Teslas – Elon’s already busy tanking Twitter. Let’s give him another reason to tweet in all caps at 3 a.m. while off his face on ketamine. The E.U should also ban Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network from winning any EU government contracts.
Social Media Tech – impose a flat tax on digital advertising revenue or the nuclear option, impose a flat tax on the service provider for every social media post to their network.
The goal isn’t just to hurt the U.S. economy; it’s to hurt the right parts, so Republican politicians start getting angry calls from donors, CEOs and farmers. Trump will cry “protectionism!” while doing the exact same thing. The correct response? A polite European eye-roll and some restraint to see if he follows through. If Trump wants a fight, Europe should give him one—just make sure it’s a fight that actually makes him and his elected supporters bleed votes. Because in the end, the best way to win a trade war isn’t just economics; it is political economics. State-specific tariffs that will erode Republican support.
1. Iowa (Critical Agriculture & Renewable Fuels)
2. Texas (Energy, Tech, & Manufacturing)
3. Florida (Agriculture, Tourism, & Aerospace)
4. Ohio (Auto, Steel, & Manufacturing)
5. South Carolina (Automotive & Aerospace)
6. Georgia (Agriculture, Automotive, & Port Trade)
7. Missouri (Agriculture & Auto)
8. Kentucky (Alcohol)
9. Wisconsin (Dairy & Harley-Davidson)
If you want to break Trump's tyranny over the Republican party, hit them where it hurts:
Rural voters (agriculture)
Corporate donors (autos, aerospace, tech)
Swing-state jobs (OH, FL, WI, GA)
The E.U. doesn’t need to win a trade war against the U.S.; it just needs to manipulate GOP politics and make them lose one.
Good recommendations and thanks for your thoughtful analyses.
It is worth calling out the primary motivating factor in the Trump tariff fiasco(s)… Service to Russia. Sure, there are some other autocratic states and anational capital manipulators also in the mix of clients served here, but the Canada / EU tariffs are primarily a gift to Russia.
Those affected by the Trump admin’s tariffs should consider forming a BRICS style alliance. The US has done none of the long, hard work to develop industrial infrastructure and a trained workforce to bring manufacturing back home. Hence, all is a performative dance by a madman trying to establish an argument as to why the US desperately needs to start importing raw materials and goods from Russia. An “alliance of the tariffed” would go a long way to eliminating the US from supply and manufacturing chains until “we” can get along with others in the sandbox.
Thanks again for your efforts. You provide a great deal of worthwhile insights in your pieces. Best of luck.
Raise taxes or fees on US military bases. U.S. military bases outside of the United States are not considered sovereign U.S. territory. They remain under the jurisdiction of the host country, though the U.S. typically has certain legal and operational control over the base through agreements like Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs). These SOFAs or other treaties often include exemptions from local tariffs and customs duties for goods imported for official use by the base. Some host nations may impose certain taxes or fees on goods brought in for personal use by military personnel or contractors.